Artificial intelligence used to predict how cancers will evolve and spread AI| Artificial intelligence
Scientists have used artificial intelligence to predict how cancers will progress and evolve, which could help doctors design the most effective treatment for each patient.
A team led by the Institute of Cancer Research, London (ICR) and the University of Edinburgh developed a new technique known as Revolver (Repeated evolution of cancer), which picks out patterns in DNA mutation within cancers and uses the information to forecast future genetic changes.
They said the ever-changing nature of tumours is one of the biggest challenges of treatment – with cancers often evolving to a drug-resistant form.
But if doctors can predict how a tumour will evolve, they could intervene earlier to stop cancer in its tracks before it has had a chance to evolve or develop resistance, increasing the patient’s chances of survival.
The team also found a link between certain sequences of repeated tumour mutations and survival outcome.
This suggests that repeating patterns of DNA mutations could be used as an indicator of prognosis, helping to shape future treatment.
For example, researchers found that breast tumours which had a sequence of errors in the genetic material that codes for the tumour-suppressing protein p53, followed by mutations in chromosome 8, survived less time than those with other similar trajectories of genetic changes.
The team developed a new machine-learning technique which transfers knowledge about tumours across similar patients.
This method identifies patterns in the order that genetic mutations occur in tumours that are repeated both within and between patients’ tumours, applying one tumour’s pattern of mutations to predict another’s.
Researchers used 768 tumour samples from 178 patients reported in previous studies for lung, breast, kidney and bowel cancer, and analysed the data within each cancer type respectively to accurately detect and compare changes in each tumour.
By identifying repeating patterns and combining this with current knowledge of cancer biology and evolution, scientists could predict the future trajectory of tumour development.
If tumours with certain patterns are found to develop resistance to a particular treatment, this novel methodology could be used to predict if patients will develop resistance in the future.
The research is published in the journal Nature Methods.
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Stopping smoking. This notoriously difficult habit to break sees tar build-up in the lungs and DNA alteration and causes 15,558 cancer deaths a year
2/13
Avoiding the sun, and the melanoma that comes with overexposure to harmful UV rays, could help conscientious shade-lovers dodge being one of the 7,220 people who die from it
3/13
A diet that is low in red meat can help to prevent bowel cancer, according to the research – with 30 grams a day recommended for men, and 25 a day recommended for women
4/13
Foods high in fibre, meanwhile, can further make for healthier bowels. Processed foods in developed countries appear to be causing higher rates of colon cancer than diets in continents such as Africa, which have high bean and pulse intakes
5/13
Two servings of fruit and three servings of vegetables a day were given as the magic number for good diet in the research. Overall, diet causes only slightly fewer cancer deaths than sun exposure in Australia, at 7,000 a year
6/13
Obesity and being overweight, linked to poor diet and lack of exercise, causes 3,917 deaths by cancer a year on its own
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Dying of a cancer caused by infection also comes in highly, linked to 3,421 cancer deaths a year. Infections such as human papilloma virus – which can cause cervical cancer in women – and hepatitis – can be prevented by vaccinations and having regular check-ups
8/13
Cutting back on drinks could reduce the risk of cancers caused by alcohol – such as liver cancer, bowel cancer, breast cancer and mouth cancer – that are leading to 3,208 deaths a year
2014 Getty Images
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Sitting around and not getting the heart pumping – less than one hour’s exercise a day – is directly leading to about 1,800 people having lower immune functions and higher hormone levels, among other factors, that cause cancers
2011 Getty Images
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Hormone replacement therapy, which is used to relieve symptoms of the menopause in women, caused 539 deaths from (mainly breast) cancer in Australia last year. It did, however, prevent 52 cases of colorectal cancers
2003 Getty Images
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Insufficient breastfeeding, bizarrely, makes the top 10. Breastfeeding for 12 months could prevent 235 cancer cases a year, said the research
AFP/Getty Images
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Oral contraceptives, like the Pill, caused about 105 breast cancers and 52 cervical cancers – but it also prevented about 1,440 ovarian and uterine (womb) cases of cancer last year
2006 Getty Images
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Taking aspirin also prevented 232 cases in the Queensland research of colorectal and oesophagal cancers – but as it can also cause strokes, is not yet recommended as a formal treatment against the risk of cancer
Dr Andrea Sottoriva, who led the study and is team leader in evolutionary genomics and modelling at the ICR, said: “We’ve developed a powerful artificial intelligence tool … with this tool we hope to remove one of cancer’s trump cards – the fact that it evolves unpredictably, without us knowing what is going to happen next.
“By giving us a peek into the future, we could potentially use this AI tool to intervene at an earlier stage, predicting cancer’s next move.”
ICR chief executive Professor Paul Workman said: “Cancer evolution is the biggest challenge we face in creating treatments that will work more effectively for patients.
“If we are able to predict how a tumour will evolve, the treatment could be altered before adaptation and drug resistance ever occur, putting us one step ahead of the cancer.”
Press Association